Krypto-Trading: So hebeln und shorten Sie Bitcoin & Co.

Some Bitcoin Analysts and Prediction Today and Yesterday & Why "It's not the Price, Dummy"

This is just for fun, I generally have no strong feelings toward bitcoin price (I'm just fundamentally against zero-sum get rich schemes). But today I decided to do a little bitcoin search in news.google.com and see what today's bulls were predicting in 2018. Side note, almost all of the news articles came from crypto sites. I tried my best to stay away from them. Farming magazine telling you agriculture is the future isn't exactly shocking.
To people who invest, please don't consider this as a prediction that price will fall. I'm not astute or smart enough to predict either way. The only possible use is to make sure you are more skeptic regarding predictions. Keep in mind, a rich CEO or consultant can lose 100 million and not really affect his life that much, but a 10k or 100k lose for some people can be devastating. And remember, some of these rich hedge managers don't believe their own bullshit, and hopefully, some of these quotes will emulate that.
(Note, I won't waste time linking them all, but by quoting them directly, it should be easy to google)
(another side note, I didn't purposely search out specific names. I went by the first names I came across, and only ignoring those that I couldn't find anything regarding crypto in past years)

Mike Novogratz

Present: Business Inside: Bitcoin is like 'digital gold' and won't be used the same as a traditional currency in at least 5 years, billionaire investor Mike Novogratz says
Past: On Nov, 2017, he said: "Bitcoin could ‘easily’ reach $40,000 by the end of 2018, hedge fund legend Novogratz says"
2018: "Michael Novogratz calls a bottom in cryptocurrencies" (it wasn't)
Novogratz started a crypto funding in 2018. First 9 months "Mike Novogratz’s Crypto Trading Desk Lost $136 Million in Nine Months" (Bloomberg). Quarter 4: "Galaxy Digital Posts $32.9 Million in Net Loss for Q4 2019". Feb 2020 "Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital Slashes 15% Staff"

Raoul Pal

Present: "For Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision, the bullish atmosphere had been reinforced, and further gains were more likely than ever.
“There are literally only two resistances left on the #bitcoin chart - 14,000 and then the old all-time high at 20,000,” he tweeted."
In a tweet today, he said, "Bitcoin is eating the world...
It has become a supermassive black hole that is sucking in everything around it and destroying it. This narrative is only going to grow over the next 18 months.
You see, gold is breaking down versus bitcoin...and gold investors will flip to BTC"
Past: 2014: "Put them in the same kind of equation we get a value of bitcoin and that value is a million dollars. Now, you'll never hear an analyst say this—but I don't mind this—I could be wrong by 90%, and it's still worth $100,000." (to be honest, that's a bit of an impressive prediction in 2014)
On the other hand, he probably didn't really believe his own prediction because in June, 2017 (when it was 2000 USD or so), he said: " “This is the most exponential move we have seen. I don’t know how far it goes, but I sold out last week… and I’ve [owned Bitcoin] since it was $200. Anything that moves exponentially, always [blows up].”"
In 2016, "This view brings Pal to the asset he favors most over the next year out of bonds, equities, currencies and commodities: the dollar."

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Eh, that was just two. I was hoping to mention several people, but it appears not many people are actually making predictions anymore, and anyone mentioned are basically not big people so I couldn't find much on them regarding bitcoin before 2019.
So, the main thing I like to highlight are the analysts and such are going to make money whatever happens. Fund managers are playing with people's money and, as long as they are not involved in frauds, there is no real harm to them against wrong predictions. Generally, successful business people are successful because they were loud, confident, and were able to convince others that they had the right idea. Even when wrong, they bounce back. Most of us aren't like that.
Some bitcoiners come here to boast when price goes up, as if the increase in price is an indication that argument against bitcoin has been proven wrong. While some people here are fanatically anti-bitcoin, I am not one of those. I have nothing against people making money (why would I be upset that people I don't know around the world became wealthier??). But since bitcoin investing is by design a zero sum game, certain people will eventually lose, and it is most likely it is the people who were listening to predictions by experts that would ultimately be financially hurt, and not the experts making the predictions.
Crypto investing has been a platform where the average person works hard in his day to day life, and then brings the fruits of his labor into this field. The actual productive part of that person's life is the one outside crypto, where they had been productive for the community, and in exchange, they receive wages. Crypto investing's promise is for this wage to increase without the actual productivity. The concern is mainly that the result of all that labor will be misused by crypto "experts" who's own income (their labor) is directly linked to predictions on crypto.
The above paragraph is badly explained, but the main point is that the average person brings in outside money they worked hard for, while "experts" there is generally no outside money, crypto fund management or consulting itself is their job.
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Money can be made, of course, but money being made isn't necessarily an argument for something. Bitcoin, and crypto, has for the past 1.5 decades still largely just about numbers going up. Google trend on "bitcoin" show top related queries being "bitcoin price", "bitcoin usd", "bitcoin usd price". When people come here when it hits a particular arbitrary price point thinking it's their gotcha moment, it actually just reinforces my argument that it is only about the price. Nothing in the history of human economy has ever lasted based only on the economic model of who you could resell it for at a higher price.
Even DeFi's smart contracts (as much as I could understand it) is about prices going up. It's like for these people the concept of contracts are based purely on money exchanging hands, and no actual task being done. Almost all contracts globally are based on specific productive tasks being done, such as employee contract, supplier contract, property contract, and so on. Only a tiny amount of it is based on "if this currency goes up, then give me that currency" contracts.
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submitted by madali0 to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

Is this a great delusion or am I missing something?

Hey guys,
Been closely following the market throughout the last few months and it feels like I'm watching a movie or something.
Don't get me wrong, I am a hodler and understand the mechanics of BTC, but I also don't believe in decoupling of BTC from the stock market (as it's clear, BTC growing chart is tightly related to the s&p growth). Which leads me to a thought that this entire show we're witnessing right now is nothing but either a great delusion or a deliberate pump before a massive dump.
Fundamentals are simply not here, economy is simply not running. What is happening?
Does anyone have the same feeling about it?
Interested to hear your opinion about it.
p.s. all these memes are becoming slightly annoying, it feels like BTC has become a pure speculative asset and the only purpose of the majority of posters here is to cause FOMO in public.
submitted by ys2020 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

vectorbt - blazingly fast backtesting and interactive data analysis for quants

I want to share with you a tool that I was continuously developing during the last couple of months.
https://github.com/polakowo/vectorbt

As a data scientist, when I first started flirting with quant trading, I quickly realized that there is a shortage of Python packages that can actually enable me to iterate over a long list of possible strategies and hyper-parameters quickly. Most open-source backtesting libraries are very evolved in terms of functionality, but simply lack speed. Questions like "Which strategy is better: X or Y?" require fast computation and transformation of data. This not only prolongs your lifecycle of designing strategies, but is dangerous after all: limited number of tests is similar to a tunnel vision - it prevents you from seeing the bigger picture and makes you dive into the market blindly.
After trying tweaking pandas, multiprocessing, and even evaluating my strategies on a cluster with Spark, I finally found myself using Numba - a Python library that can compile slow Python code to be run at native machine code speed. And since there were no packages in the Python ecosystem that could even closely match the speed of my own backtests, I made vectorbt.
vectorbt combines pandas, NumPy and Numba sauce to obtain orders-of-magnitude speedup over other libraries. It builds upon the idea that each instance of a trading strategy can be represented in a vectorized form, so multiple strategy instances can be packed into a single multi-dimensional array. In this form, they can processed in a highly efficient manner and compared easily. It also integrates Plotly and ipywidgets to display complex charts and dashboards akin to Tableau right in the Jupyter notebook. You can find basic examples and explanations in the documentation.

Below is an example of doing in total 67,032 tests on three different timeframes of Bitcoin price history to explore how performance of a MACD strategy depends upon various combinations of fast, slow and signal windows:
import vectorbt as vbt import numpy as np import yfinance as yf from itertools import combinations, product # Fetch daily price of Bitcoin price = yf.Ticker("BTC-USD").history(period="max")['Close'] price = price.vbt.split_into_ranges(n=3) # Define hyper-parameter space # 49 fast x 49 slow x 19 signal fast_windows, slow_windows, signal_windows = vbt.indicators.create_param_combs( (product, (combinations, np.arange(2, 51, 1), 2), np.arange(2, 21, 1))) # Run MACD indicator macd_ind = vbt.MACD.from_params( price, fast_window=fast_windows, slow_window=slow_windows, signal_window=signal_windows, hide_params=['macd_ewm', 'signal_ewm'] ) # Long when MACD is above zero AND signal entries = macd_ind.macd_above(0) & macd_ind.macd_above(macd_ind.signal) # Short when MACD is below zero OR signal exits = macd_ind.macd_below(0) | macd_ind.macd_below(macd_ind.signal) # Build portfolio portfolio = vbt.Portfolio.from_signals( price.vbt.tile(len(fast_windows)), entries, exits, fees=0.001, freq='1D') # Draw all window combinations as a 3D volume fig = portfolio.total_return.vbt.volume( x_level='macd_fast_window', y_level='macd_slow_window', z_level='macd_signal_window', slider_level='range_start', template='plotly_dark', trace_kwargs=dict( colorscale='Viridis', colorbar=dict( title='Total return', tickformat='%' ) ) ) fig.show() 

https://reddit.com/link/hxl6bn/video/180sxqa8mzc51/player
From signal generation to data visualization, the example above needs roughly a minute to run.

vectorbt let's you
The current implementation has limitations though:

If it sounds cool enough, try it out! I would love if you'd give me some feedback and contribute to it at some point, as the codebase has grown very fast. Cheers.
submitted by plkwo to algotrading [link] [comments]

Despite Stock Market Disaster Predictions, Bitcoin Markets Permeate Bullish Signals.

Even though market analysts observing traditional stocks and equities expect an incoming dump, digital currency proponents expect crypto markets to move northbound. An “independent research boutique” that provides institutional investors with insight for today’s markets, Nautilus Research, thinks bitcoin (BTC) looks bullish right now.
On July 23, Nautilus Research tweeted a BTC/USD chart that indicates a possible “bullish pattern.”
A number of other bitcoin proponents are very bullish about bitcoin’s (BTC) price moving northbound in the near future. Investment strategist Lyn Alden recently published a research analysis of bitcoin, in order to explain why she is “currently bullish from a macro/generalist investor perspective, as part of a portfolio.”
Although, not everyone is so optimistic and some people believe we might be seeing a bull trap or fakeout. Bitcoin21.org analyst Eran Gadot explained on July 24, that BTC may see some trouble ahead.
submitted by tradewithmiller to StockMarket [link] [comments]

09-06 21:55 - 'Things are really getting tricky & intense... 🤔🤔🤔' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/RalphAnderson_ removed from /r/Bitcoin within 14-24min

'''
Bitcoin price risks losing $10,000 zone toward the CME futures gap
The past week has seen a significant sell-off across the markets with #Bitcoin (BTC) losing more than 10% of its value. Other cryptocurrencies have been showing even more weakness as #Ether (ETH) dropped by 30%.
In addition, the commodity and equity markets have also slid as the Nasdaq had a significant red week as well. The next step for the markets right now would be finding a bottom structure. Let’s look at the charts.
Bitcoin seeks CME gap while holding psychological support of $10,000 The daily chart shows that the price of BTC is resting on the previous resistance zone of $10,000. This resistance area was established during the sideways action after the Bitcoin halving in May.
Clearly, the previous range support at $11,100 was lost, after which Bitcoin wanted to participate in the World Championships of Nosediving. However, it was not unreasonable to expect such a drop as the chart shows.
There’s no clear area of support between $10,000 and $11,100 so it’s not unexpected to see this area break down toward the previous resistance zone at $10,000.
The CME chart still shows an open gap between $9,600 and $9,900. These gaps are often filled, and the argument that the bottom may be found at $9,600 is certainly plausible.
However, as the chart shows, if the price of Bitcoin shows weakness through the weekend, a potential new CME gap can be formed.
The price of Bitcoin closed at $10,625 on Friday evening with the CME futures. So if the price opens on Sunday evening lower than $10,625, a new CME gap is likely. In other words, this potential gap could fuel a relief rally to the upside.
What’s next for the price of Bitcoin? At this point, a potential short-term bottom may be the case, which means a relief rally can be expected.
However, whether it will be the final bottom for this recent correction is up for debate. But a few scenarios can be derived from the current chart. The scenario anticipates a potential filling of the CME Bitcoin futures gap.
This scenario anticipates a potential bottom formation around this gap, after which a bullish divergence would confirm a short-term trend reversal. The crucial pivots here are the support around $9,600, after which a bounce has to occur off the gap, and the $10,000 area needs to be reclaimed.
If that scenario plays out, the CME gap is closed, and the market might have formed a bottom as far as this correction goes.
Once the $10,000 is reclaimed and the CME gap is closed, then a retest of higher levels becomes more likely than a further downward correction.
New possible areas of support for BTC However, if the CME gap doesn’t stop the drop, the following levels should be watched for potential areas of support.
In case of a further drop beneath $10,000 and the CME gap, the primary support levels are found at $9,400-9,500 and $8,800-9,100. These levels should serve as short-term support areas, after which a relief rally could occur.
Overall, the markets are looking shaky and investors should be cautious about entering trades in general before a clear construction can be seen in the charts.
'''
Things are really getting tricky & intense... 🤔🤔🤔
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: RalphAnderson_
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

LeanFIRE and Goal Oriented Investing: 10 Mistakes you should avoid

Dear All -
After my earlier post regarding COVID-19 and 10 rules to deploy savings that generated lots of questions and interest I would like to share my thoughts about Goal Oriented Investing. While it's a 101 it may nevertheless be helpful to highlight especially in this market environment. I wasn't able to put graphs and videos here so you may find the full version here. Looking forward to hearing your feedback.

1. Not clearly defining your goals. Define your objectives and think in terms of sub-portfolios

Define your short and long term goals. Allocate to asset classes based on your time horizon (e.g. short term goals need to be carefully managed with a defensive portfolio since the short term volatility of high risk assets like stocks can hurt you). Be sure to have a reserve fund of liquid short-term investments and cash so you can cover emergencies and upcoming large expenses without having to sell your investments during down markets.

2. Not being patient and overreacting. Good things come to those who wait

Returns tend to smooth out over the long term. There is a myth about a Fidelity study that analysed all its performing accounts and realised that best performance came out of portfolios of people who either forgot about their accounts or were dead. You can understand why people believe these findings although the study never took place (look at the chart here - 1 to 20 year rolling performance again!). Logging into your brokepension plan account every day may not be helpful. You may tend to react – do not rush investment decisions.

3. Oveunderestimating your risk tolerance

Take a risk tolerance assessment if necessary to understand your risk profile. Your risk tolerance is important to tweak the asset allocation of your goal sub-portfolio. It is determined by: the degree of flexibility you have with regard to your financial goal, and your personal comfort level with volatility in your portfolio.

4. Aiming at influencing things outside of your control. Focus of what’s in your control

This is the Stoic part of the 10 recommendations (if you also happen to adhere to this philosophy get the Stoic newsletter I never stopped reading for the past 5 years). One of the eye-openers that you learn while studying for the gruelling (Chartered Financial Analyst ‘CFA’) Charter is that research estimates that asset allocation (not stock selection!) drives up to c. 90% of overall portfolio performance. You control asset allocation and rebalancing. You do control your spending and savings that will grow over time – don’t waste most of your time on researching individual stocks (read: Are you more qualified than a professional analyst).

5. Not acquiring enough education and taking excessive idiosyncratic risks

Some of the most trending Google searches during this COVID-19 pandemic include ‘best stocks to buy now’, ‘how to invest in oil stocks’, ‘best stock for 2020’ or ‘best investments for 2020’ etc. In fact the phrase ‘how to buy a stock’ surged to record highs. This also relates to FOMO which I have described here and chasing upward trends in a bear market. Acquiring Investment Knowledge is key as it is ultimately your decisions that will determine whether your hard-earned savings generate long term returns. Do your homework. Understand investment risks. Research fundamentals. Take a bit more time if needed – the market is efficient and is pricing in information relatively quickly – you have no edge in acting quickly.

6. Being overly conservative over the long run

Think of your goals as liabilities that you need to match with your investments. The power of compounding means that you need a much lower amount today to meet a higher amount expenditure in the future. Einstein said compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn’t, pays it. If you have high needs with long time horizon you need to take calculated risks. Invest too defensively (e.g. low allocation to Equities) and it may not match your long term objective. Buffett’s exceptional investment returns are also due to his time horizon.

7. Holding excessive cash. Not taking risks involves high opportunity costs

Believe it or not but a lot of bankers working for the top names tend to hold cash and under-invest. By holding cash you are not only missing out on compounding interest but also paying more taxes! Inflation is an indirect tax that works by destroying savings in exchange for gov’t financing. It gets worse – as central banks print an unprecedented amount of money – most standard measurements of inflation, such as the consumer price index (CPI), do not account for the disproportional effects of quantitative easing which is rising asset prices (monetary inflation). Even when you hear about deflation it’s often very misleading. This bear market may be a good opportunity to gradually deploy cash for long term returns if you haven’t already.
As an example – the ‘headline’ inflation in the UK (2.9%) that over 10 years increased prices by 29.29% vs. London Property Prices that increased over twice as much. The same applies to other real assets, like company valuations (stocks) or gold.

8. Not considering diversification

Yes, bonds are not as sexy as stocks since your returns may not be as spectacular in the short term but these are excellent diversifiers that may be sometimes better suited depending on your investment objective and time horizon. Other currencies or hard metals/BTC may be good as well. As an example YTD performance (as of March 9th when I did the analysis) was -14.2% for stocks, +6.1% for bonds and +10.7% for Gold.

9. Letting your emotions rule

This is difficult to implement since we tend to have emotional biases. If you do decide to have a small part of your goal-oriented strategic asset allocation dedicated to tactical asset allocation, sector or stock selection emotions could drive investment decisions based on loss aversion or overconfidence (e.g. confusing brains with a bull market). If it’s e.g. the latter try to stay humble/rational and ask yourself if you really have an edge before making a decision.

10. Forgetting to rebalance

Some advisors recommend that investors rebalance their portfolios on a regular time interval while others recommend rebalancing only when the relative weight of an asset class deviates from the target allocation (glide path investments). Either way, this is something that needs to be observed on a regular basis. I aim to discuss glide path investments in future posts.
With all charts: https://bankeronwheels.com/how-do-i-start-investing-start-learning-how-to-invest-in-stocks-and-bonds-by-avoiding-these-10-common-investing-mistakes/
Stay well!
submitted by bankeronwheels to leanfire [link] [comments]

All Inflation? In Bitcoin Terms, Stocks Never Recovered From Covid-19

Bitcoin (BTC), in fact, crushed stock markets during the Covid-19 recovery with equity “growth” simply down to inflation, fresh data argues. Charts showing stocks denominated in gold and Bitcoin in 2020 show that far from having their best quarter in ten years, markets had no “recovery” at all. “It’s all inflation” The perspective is starkly […]
submitted by FuzzyOneAdmin to fuzzyone [link] [comments]

Why Bitcoin remains a marginal vehicle for store of value (at best) vs. Gold

There is no doubt that times like these necessitate asset diversification.
Some candidates include Bitcoin (“BTC”) and Gold (“XAU”). We have an on-going debate with one of my best friends about Bitcoin.
He is a firm believer in BTC due to (i) the printing of money by central banks, (ii) the lost of faith in governments and (iii) the technological advantage over traditional gold
[Original post with charts: https://bankeronwheels.com/bitcoin-a-marginal-vehicle-for-store-of-value/ ]
I think of BTC as an electronic version of gold:
Lindy effect – which is most likely to survive?
If you store value, the most important aspect is for the asset class to survive. Made popular by Nicholas Taleb, the Lindy effect states that the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy.
Gold has been around for centuries and will be around in the next decades. As with Bitcoin, the currency may be around or could be replaced by a more efficient one (e.g. from transaction perspective). If you consider some of your savings as a means to secure a future for you and your kids then Gold is much more likely to fulfill this objective – although one needs to be reminded that this both asset classes don’t generate any income and as such can be used as diversifiers and potentially partially rotated into more risky assets when the market turns.
Price stability
If we assume that currently the main use for both is the store of value (BTC is only marginally used as transactional currency) then price stability is key. Gold prices are more stable and largely correlated to (i) real rates (ii) strength of USD and (iii) macro outlook. Arguably, Gold is less prone to price manipulation as one of the most traded assets (daily volumes can be as high as the total market cap of BTC).
It goes without saying that BTC can provide you with better returns as it’s more speculative in nature. The purpose of this blog however is to analyse assets from a savings allocation perspective and thus taking into consideration the risk you’re taking.
Insurance against market crash
While both BTC and XAU increased in value along with other risk assets prior to the crisis, the subsequent drop was much more significant for BTC while XAU only experienced marginal losses due to forced liquidations from investors highlighting the speculative nature of BTC.
As such Gold provides a good insurance policy as long as the crash in not excessively severe in nature – in 2008 Gold has initially dropped in value due to liquidations before rallying.
Another potential diversifiers that act as insurance for equity portfolios are government bonds. Treasuries have also experienced some volatility due to liquidations but are different to BTC and XAU as the FED controls the short term maturity asset yields and now even considering controlling the longer end of the curvesimilar to other countries like Japan or Australia
Doom scenario(s)
Both assets have major issues since Gold can’t be easily transported/accessed in case of a major natural disaster and BTC will miserably fail when electricity is down (earthquake, tsunami etc). Electronic Gold suffers from the same shortcoming hence physical gold has an edge here
Possible Near term Prospects
The technology behind BTC is very powerful. I’d also agree that conceptually is the best form of money that has ever been invented. Regarding BTC, in the end my friend and I will probably meet somewhere in the middle . A marginal part of the receivers of US fiscal measures may invest the cash in BTC. I have seen a large group of anti-establishment people on the West Coast while cycling from Vancouver to San Francisco last summer and there is a likelihood that these people will drive the BTC price up in the near term. However, due mainly to the price stability issue and perceived complexity I am yet to see a significant part of population that would allocate a sizeable part of their savings in BTC. And this brings me to my last point – skin in the game. So far, my friend only allocated a small amount of his net worth to BTC…
[As originally posted with charts on https://bankeronwheels.com/bitcoin-a-marginal-vehicle-for-store-of-value/ ]
submitted by bankeronwheels to Gold [link] [comments]

Why should bitcoin cost $18,000 today and why can it fall down to $6,900 towards autumn?

Why should bitcoin cost $18,000 today and why can it fall down to $6,900 towards autumn?

https://preview.redd.it/nj9f1jkfvv551.png?width=1828&format=png&auto=webp&s=6fa64d596132b28e8ebc21a1ef7cc2d048552ae9

Bitcoin should cost $18,000 today

Analyst PlanB writes. According to his estimates, the correlation between the S&P 500 index and bitcoin is 95% and the cryptocurrency is underestimated today.
With the current index, BTC should cost $18,000, the analyst points out.
PlanB also notes that the charts of both equities fit into the S2F model — according to the forecast, the next peak of bitcoin will occur at the level of $288,000 and S&P 500 will rise up to $4,300 in this case.

The BTC price will continue to fall

Popular trader CryptoCapo posted a series of tweets where he compared the current bitcoin chart with historical data.
The detected "fractals" presuppose that the bitcoin exchange rate will continue to go down. According to the analyst, the price is ready to break through the support trend line. If the rate goes below $9,200, the next goal will be the level of $8,550, the breakthrough of which will definitely confirm the bear trend.
CryptoCapo earlier posted the Wyckoff method estimate according to which the current accumulation would trigger the price movement to the point of $1,600.

Bitcoin will go down to $6,900 towards autumn

Crypto analyst Dave the Wave points out. According to his conclusions, the bitcoin exchange rate should drop down to the lower side of the global triangle where there is also the Fibonacci correction level of 0.382.
The analyst points out that indicators confirm the bearish attitude and "the last but one chance" to buy at a low price will be near the level of $6,900.
submitted by bestchange_pr to bestchange [link] [comments]

The bitcoin exchange rate fell down below $9,000 again — no growth ahead?

The bitcoin exchange rate fell down below $9,000 again — no growth ahead?

https://preview.redd.it/9hb37p1ocg551.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9230a19985195a87920ca676ad966bd9cecf3469

Here is what analysts think about it:


▶ Buterin: the growth of the bitcoin price is not related to halving
The co-founder of Ethereum Vitalik Buterin stated that the theory that the growth of the BTC exchange rate was related to halving did not work.
The developer attached a chart of the S2F model according to which bitcoin periodically increased its cost together with halving the reward for mining a block.
"The last $20k peak was near the halfway point between the 2016 and 2020 halvings", he pointed out.
In the comments Buterin was told that the model predicted the quantitative growth of the bitcoin price, but it did not presume that the maximum will coincide exactly with the event of halving. The developer agreed that the absence of the direct correlation between halving and the growth of the bitcoin price did not disprove the theory, but said that he still did not agree with it.

▶ The price of Ethereum can rise up to $7,500
If the BTC exchange rate increases up to $50,000, Chris Burniske, a partner in the Placeholder venture capital firm, thinks.
"If $BTC goes > $50,000 in the next cycle, and $ETHBTC returns to its former ATH, then expect to see $ETH > $7,500", he wrote in his Twitter account.
According to him, the price of bitcoin will rise up to $50,000, even if the volatility of the new rally will be twice as less as the previous indices. In this case, the capitalization of the first cryptocurrency will rise above $1 trillion. It will allow bitcoin to strengthen its "macro equity" status, while ETH will be able to become a mainstream instrument, the expert thinks.

▶ The price of bitcoin will go down following the stock market
Analyst Satoshi Flipper thinks. If the US shares continue the correction, the BTC price will fall to $7,300 before the middle of July, he writes.
Satoshi Flipper points out that, by going below $9,400, the exchange rate has broken through the trend line that has been acting as a support one since May. The S&P 500 index fell down 2.79% this morning — the crypto market followed it as well, the trader points out. He adds that he has been holding the short position regarding bitcoin since the weekend.
submitted by bestchange_pr to bestchange [link] [comments]

CRYPTO WEEKLY NEWS — May, 8

What important crypto events happened last week?
📌 Block number 10,000,000 was mined on Ethereum on the 4th of May 2020 setting the number of blocks mined on the second-largest blockchain over 15 times more than Bitcoin despite being 5 years younger. Congrats! Meanwhile, Vitalik Buterin spoke about the expected reduction in the annual Ethereum issue from the current 4.7 million coins to 100 thousand-2 million after switching to the Proof-of-Stake consensus algorithm. The rejection of Proof-of-Work in favor of Proof-of-Stake is due to the desire to reduce inflation in the blockchain. Speaking about Ethereum, ConsenSys, the leading Ethereum dApp development studio is adjusting to the conditions of the devastating crisis of COVID-19 and will present Ethereal Summit completely virtually on May 7-8. Such an event takes place virtually for the very first time. And from May 29 to June 16, the Planet Wide SOS online hackathon will take place. The participants will share business ideas to overcome the global crisis. The best of them will receive financing for implementation. The event will be opened by Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin and Singularity.Net CEO Ben Herzel.
📌 Well, it's all about the upcoming Bitcoin halving right now. The experts say that BTC is now the most profitable investment by far, rising 21% from $7,203 at the start of 2020 with equities suffering big losses in 2020 and gold up 7.83% on the year. The price of Bitcoin is around $9,000, after last week's impressive 20% rally in a single day. All seems to be going well. However, there is one chart view that suggests that BTC may still be in a downtrend. Following the price recovery trend, the whales are actively accumulating Bitcoin. According to Glassnode, from the beginning of March 2020, the number of the largest bitcoin addresses grew by 11% and reached 111, the highest since the beginning of August 2019.
📌 Ripple has published a financial report for the first quarter of this year. During this period, the company sold XRP for $1.75 million. In the last quarter of 2019, this figure reached $13.08 million. The drop in sales was a record 87%, and this is the worst Ripple record ever. The decline is due to a sharp decrease in direct institutional sales, as well as a prolonged pause in sales to cryptocurrency exchanges.
📌 Owing to the drastic economic effect of coronavirus in Italy and also a way to survive these hard times, a small Italy town, Castellino del Biferno, with 550 residents, began minting their local currency dubbed “Ducati”.
📌 Global Digital Assets (GDA), the first merchant bank in North America to focus on blockchain and digital assets, announced that it will be joining the DigitalBits ecosystem to further enterprise adoption for branded cryptocurrencies.
📌 The ever-entertaining John McAfee is 99% certain he knows who Satoshi Nakamoto is. McAfee claims that linguistic analysis of the whitepaper is all that is needed to uncover Satoshi’s identity. But he won't name this person.
📌 In honor of its seventh birthday, CoinMarketCap organized the so-called roast challenge, inviting the participants of the crypto community to sincerely hook on the popular analytical service in the comments under the Twitter post. Happy Birthday, CMC! And yes, the comments are so good they deserve your attention.
submitted by CoinjoyAssistant to EtherMining [link] [comments]

Market Weekly Report - Week of 18/05/2020

Market Weekly Report - Week of 18/05/2020

Coinviva BTC-USD Hourly Chart
The Bitcoin had rally last week that went from $8,600 to $9,722 before settling at around $9,500. It formed a lower high compared to the previous peak at $10,045 the week before, signaling a potential reversal of the bullish trend related to the Bitcoin halving event.
If there is not enough buying power to push the BTC price above $10,000 next week, it could potentially test the support at $9,100 before bouncing back to the $9,200 to $9,600 range. Watch for an entry signal if the price breaks below the support level (lower Keltner band) as indicated in the hourly chart.

Review of the week:

Although Bitcoin‘s price has bounced back in this week after halving on Monday, Bitcoin network hashrate (the total computing power dedicated to mining blocks on the blockchain) has declined to 98 EH/s, compared 135 EH/s before Monday. The decline in the hashrate suggests some miners have scaled back or shut down operations following the halving of block rewards from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, which makes returning a profit harder or impossible with older mining machines (depending on the price). The mean block interval time rose to 727 seconds or 12 minutes from 8.5 minutes in pre-halving period. Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York said there’s going to be pressure for Bitcoin in the short term because the incentive is less for miners now to mine bitcoin and they will probably switch to more profitable cryptocurrencies. However, in a longer-term, with all the fiscal and monetary stimulus that’s being pumped into the global economy, there’s renewed interest from institutional traders looking for alternatives to modern government-backed currencies. A recent research paper examined the relationship between Bitcoin, global economic activity, equity markets, and foreign exchange markets, while also concluded that Bitcoin does not exhibit any significant relationship with economic activity (BDI), equity markets (DJIA) or the foreign exchange (USD-Euro, USD-Yen) markets in either bullish or bearish regimes. It suggested that Bitcoin may offer some hedging to diversification potential in the global portfolio investments.
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.

About Coinviva:

Coinviva aims to create the best crypto financial services ecosystem for both institutional and individual investors. We provide reliable fiat funding options, excellent trading liquidity, bank security level custody and one-stop high liquidity provision on-site & off-site. Our founding management team all come from top tiered investment banking (e.g. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch), with fully comprehensive financial institution operation experience.
Homepage: https://coinviva.com/
Telegram: https://t.me/coinviva
submitted by Coinviva to u/Coinviva [link] [comments]

CRYPTO WEEKLY NEWS — May, 8

What important crypto events happened last week?
📌 Well, it's all about the upcoming Bitcoin halving right now. The experts say that BTC is now the most profitable investment by far, rising 21% from $7,203 at the start of 2020 with equities suffering big losses in 2020 and gold up 7.83% on the year. The price of Bitcoin is around $9,000, after last week's impressive 20% rally in a single day. All seems to be going well. However, there is one chart view that suggests that BTC may still be in a downtrend. Following the price recovery trend, the whales are actively accumulating Bitcoin. According to Glassnode, from the beginning of March 2020, the number of the largest bitcoin addresses grew by 11% and reached 111, the highest since the beginning of August 2019.
📌 Ripple has published a financial report for the first quarter of this year. During this period, the company sold XRP for $1.75 million. In the last quarter of 2019, this figure reached $13.08 million. The drop in sales was a record 87%, and this is the worst Ripple record ever. The decline is due to a sharp decrease in direct institutional sales, as well as a prolonged pause in sales to cryptocurrency exchanges.
📌 Block number 10,000,000 was mined on Ethereum on the 4th of May 2020 setting the number of blocks mined on the second-largest blockchain over 15 times more than Bitcoin despite being 5 years younger. Congrats! Meanwhile, Vitalik Buterin spoke about the expected reduction in the annual Ethereum issue from the current 4.7 million coins to 100 thousand-2 million after switching to the Proof-of-Stake consensus algorithm. The rejection of Proof-of-Work in favor of Proof-of-Stake is due to the desire to reduce inflation in the blockchain. Speaking about Ethereum, ConsenSys, the leading Ethereum dApp development studio, is adjusting to the conditions of the devastating crisis of COVID-19 and will present Ethereal Summit completely virtually on May 7-8. Such an event takes place virtually for the very first time. And from May 29 to June 16, the Planet Wide SOS online hackathon will take place. The participants will share business ideas to overcome the global crisis. The best of them will receive financing for implementation. The event will be opened by Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin and Singularity.Net CEO Ben Herzel.
📌 Owing to the drastic economic effect of coronavirus in Italy and also a way to survive these hard times, a small Italy town, Castellino del Biferno, with 550 residents, began minting their local currency dubbed “Ducati”.
📌 Global Digital Assets (GDA), the first merchant bank in North America to focus on blockchain and digital assets, announced that it will be joining the DigitalBits ecosystem to further enterprise adoption for branded cryptocurrencies.
📌 The ever-entertaining John McAfee is 99% certain he knows who Satoshi Nakamoto is. McAfee claims that linguistic analysis of the whitepaper is all that is needed to uncover Satoshi’s identity. But he won't name this person.
📌 In honor of its seventh birthday, CoinMarketCap organized the so-called roast challenge, inviting the participants of the crypto community to sincerely hook on the popular analytical service in the comments under the Twitter post. Happy Birthday, CMC! And yes, the comments are so good they deserve your attention.
submitted by CoinjoyAssistant to RippleTalk [link] [comments]

CRYPTO WEEKLY NEWS — May, 8

What important crypto events happened last week?
📌 Block number 10,000,000 was mined on Ethereum on the 4th of May 2020 setting the number of blocks mined on the second-largest blockchain over 15 times more than Bitcoin despite being 5 years younger. Congrats! Meanwhile, Vitalik Buterin spoke about the expected reduction in the annual Ethereum issue from the current 4.7 million coins to 100 thousand-2 million after switching to the Proof-of-Stake consensus algorithm. The rejection of Proof-of-Work in favor of Proof-of-Stake is due to the desire to reduce inflation in the blockchain. Speaking about Ethereum, ConsenSys, the leading Ethereum dApp development studio is adjusting to the conditions of the devastating crisis of COVID-19 and will present Ethereal Summit completely virtually on May 7-8. Such an event takes place virtually for the very first time. And from May 29 to June 16, the Planet Wide SOS online hackathon will take place. The participants will share business ideas to overcome the global crisis. The best of them will receive financing for implementation. The event will be opened by Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin and Singularity.Net CEO Ben Herzel.
📌 Well, it's all about the upcoming Bitcoin halving right now. The experts say that BTC is now the most profitable investment by far, rising 21% from $7,203 at the start of 2020 with equities suffering big losses in 2020 and gold up 7.83% on the year. The price of Bitcoin is around $9,000, after last week's impressive 20% rally in a single day. All seems to be going well. However, there is one chart view that suggests that BTC may still be in a downtrend. Following the price recovery trend, the whales are actively accumulating Bitcoin. According to Glassnode, from the beginning of March 2020, the number of the largest bitcoin addresses grew by 11% and reached 111, the highest since the beginning of August 2019.
📌 Ripple has published a financial report for the first quarter of this year. During this period, the company sold XRP for $1.75 million. In the last quarter of 2019, this figure reached $13.08 million. The drop in sales was a record 87%, and this is the worst Ripple record ever. The decline is due to a sharp decrease in direct institutional sales, as well as a prolonged pause in sales to cryptocurrency exchanges.
📌 Owing to the drastic economic effect of coronavirus in Italy and also a way to survive these hard times, a small Italy town, Castellino del Biferno, with 550 residents, began minting their local currency dubbed “Ducati”.
📌 Global Digital Assets (GDA), the first merchant bank in North America to focus on blockchain and digital assets, announced that it will be joining the DigitalBits ecosystem to further enterprise adoption for branded cryptocurrencies.
📌 The ever-entertaining John McAfee is 99% certain he knows who Satoshi Nakamoto is. McAfee claims that linguistic analysis of the whitepaper is all that is needed to uncover Satoshi’s identity. But he won't name this person.
📌 In honor of its seventh birthday, CoinMarketCap organized the so-called roast challenge, inviting the participants of the crypto community to sincerely hook on the popular analytical service in the comments under the Twitter post. Happy Birthday, CMC! And yes, the comments are so good they deserve your attention.
submitted by CoinjoyAssistant to ethtrader [link] [comments]

CRYPTO WEEKLY NEWS — May, 8

What important crypto events happened last week?
📌 Well, it's all about the upcoming Bitcoin halving right now. The experts say that BTC is now the most profitable investment by far, rising 21% from $7,203 at the start of 2020 with equities suffering big losses in 2020 and gold up 7.83% on the year. The price of Bitcoin is around $9,000, after last week's impressive 20% rally in a single day. All seems to be going well. However, there is one chart view that suggests that BTC may still be in a downtrend. Following the price recovery trend, the whales are actively accumulating Bitcoin. According to Glassnode, from the beginning of March 2020, the number of the largest bitcoin addresses grew by 11% and reached 111, the highest since the beginning of August 2019.
📌 Ripple has published a financial report for the first quarter of this year. During this period, the company sold XRP for $1.75 million. In the last quarter of 2019, this figure reached $13.08 million. The drop in sales was a record 87%, and this is the worst Ripple record ever. The decline is due to a sharp decrease in direct institutional sales, as well as a prolonged pause in sales to cryptocurrency exchanges.
📌 Block number 10,000,000 was mined on Ethereum on the 4th of May 2020 setting the number of blocks mined on the second-largest blockchain over 15 times more than Bitcoin despite being 5 years younger. Congrats! Meanwhile, Vitalik Buterin spoke about the expected reduction in the annual Ethereum issue from the current 4.7 million coins to 100 thousand-2 million after switching to the Proof-of-Stake consensus algorithm. The rejection of Proof-of-Work in favor of Proof-of-Stake is due to the desire to reduce inflation in the blockchain. Speaking about Ethereum, ConsenSys, the leading Ethereum dApp development studio is adjusting to the conditions of the devastating crisis of COVID-19 and will present Ethereal Summit completely virtually on May 7-8. Such an event takes place virtually for the very first time. And from May 29 to June 16, the Planet Wide SOS online hackathon will take place. The participants will share business ideas to overcome the global crisis. The best of them will receive financing for implementation. The event will be opened by Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin and Singularity.Net CEO Ben Herzel.
📌 Owing to the drastic economic effect of coronavirus in Italy and also a way to survive these hard times, a small Italy town, Castellino del Biferno, with 550 residents, began minting their local currency dubbed “Ducati”.
📌 Global Digital Assets (GDA), the first merchant bank in North America to focus on blockchain and digital assets, announced that it will be joining the DigitalBits ecosystem to further enterprise adoption for branded cryptocurrencies.
📌 The ever-entertaining John McAfee is 99% certain he knows who Satoshi Nakamoto is. McAfee claims that linguistic analysis of the whitepaper is all that is needed to uncover Satoshi’s identity. But he won't name this person.
📌 In honor of its seventh birthday, CoinMarketCap organized the so-called roast challenge, inviting the participants of the crypto community to sincerely hook on the popular analytical service in the comments under the Twitter post. Happy Birthday, CMC! And yes, the comments are so good they deserve your attention.
submitted by CoinjoyAssistant to BlockchainStartups [link] [comments]

This sub is a mess and needs to get out of the anger stage: How to move forward from the crash if you're a bagholder

Back in December 2017 I did a valuation attempt of Bitcoin on this sub and got around 5K with some grossly optimistic assumptions. Its taken a long time but finally gone down below that.
You've probably heard many people tell you it would eventually happen back in December 2017 and to reduce expose to crypto (including me), but when you're hyped up on 20% gains every week its hard to be cautious or engage in defensive measures. To many the last quarter of 2017 and into early 2018 was like a beach party with coke and Victoria Secret models. Who wants to listen to someone tell you about how you're gonna crash hard with a headache the next morning?
With this latest crash, Bitcoin's price is back to roughly mid October 2017, which is roughly when the mainstream mania started. Many on this sub entered after October 2017 and hence are now left holding heavy bags. Many are down 80% or even 90%. Here is the current losses from ATH for the top cryptos:
Asset Loss from ATH
BTC -77%
XRP - 88%
ETH -90%
BCH -95%
XLM -79%
EOS -83%
LTC -91%
ADA -96%
XMR -85%
TRN -96%

Who do we blame?

At a time like this its easy to get angry, to look at someone to blame. Whether Roger Ver and the hash wars, whether BAAKT delay, whether whales or SEC or institutions, everyone has their favorite boogeyman. No one thing is the reason why the market is down 80%.
The reality is that Bitcoin (and all other crypto by extension) was ovevalued even by grossly overoptimistic measures. Its not BAKKT or the whales trying to get your coins for cheap. The same people who were buying at near peak bubble thinking they were getting into the chance of a lifetime are prone to look for someone to blame for their losses, when it was actually their fault for buying near the end of a mania.
Nobody wants to admit that it was their own greed, lack of research and irrational behavior that lead to the gross overvaluation of all cryptocurrency.

Is it over yet?

The $6K consolidation was likely a result of the market coiling tighter and tighter around the mining breakeven point for some of the smaller miners. The big firms in China are profitable mining below 6K, but many smaller ones in the US and Europe aren't. You can actually see the total hash rate going down. Once it broke it was a big fall straight down.
Bitcoin is mined at 12.5 BTC. per block at 10 minute blocks, which comes out to around 1800 BTC every day. This 1800 BTC has to be absorbed by every day, which means the following at different price levels:
Price Level Daily net buying needed to absorb mined coins
6000 $10.8 million/day
4500 $8.1 million/day
3000 $5.4 million/day
At the current price, at least theoretically $8.4 million in demand is needed to cover the mining output. Of course the miners don't immediately dump it all, but it shows why miners have an incentive to keep the price high and try to incite FOMO with a BGD.
I can also see that after this latest drop, the "buy the dip" sentiment had substantially gone down, at least compared to the other fast drops in price. This is especially discouraging those who were waiting for the "November bull run", which never came. Its clear to more people now that this probably isn't just downward correction that will reverse, but a multiyear bear market. This is why the bounce has been so weak compared to earlier in the year. Compare that to the last two big 2 day drops:
The weakness of this current bounce says it all, people are no longer optimistic that BAKKT or ETF or any other catalyst will lead to a bull run that they can cash out quick. It may be a period of stagnation followed by further drops as big holders take profits.
I also think that the FED tightening with rate hikes is leading to a lot more volatility not only in stocks, but crypto as well. Right now asset deflation seems to be a global macro risk as cheap credit dries up, and Bitcoin surely isn't immune from this.
My personal view is that at this point we may see further declines, but calling what's going to happen next is always dangerous. A whale (especially a big mining operation) with a series of large orders to clear out the order book on Bitfinex could give us a BGD out of nowhere at any time and take us back to 6K, it would be interesting to see how the market reacts to something like that. But I'm not betting on it leading to any sustained rally past 10K. Quite the opposite.
So what's a crypto shrimp to do? I'll split my thoughts into two, for those who are still in the green and those in the loss.

If you're still in the green

If you're still in profit, this is a great time to consider how much more downward selling you can take and also how you can hedge downward risk.
If you're someone who purchased when Bitcoin was below $1000, you should calculate your compounded annual ROI and decide if that return is good enough for you. For equities, the long term average is about 10% per year, 20-30% in a good bull market.
Its your decision, but taking out profits that exceed principal and reinvesting the principal is not at all a bad idea. For those who invested before Bitcoin reached $1K (April 2017) the current price is still an insane return that no other asset class can match.
Another important thing is to think about how you can hedge the risk of downward movement. This is where derivative exchanges are very useful, although you do need to do some research on how derivatives work and how to not get liquidated. If you have substantial holdings, the effort to learn this is worth it.
The basic idea is that you can buy short contracts that increase in value as Bitcoin goes down, proportional to the amount of leverage you put to finance the contract. If managed correctly, you can protect your entire stack with a portion as leverage. Its something commonly done by miners, who short Bitcoin with derivatives to hedge their holdings.

If you're in the loss

The untold reality is that HODL is a meme told to newbies to prevent panic selling during a downturn while the smart money cashes out in a more orderly fashion. But does that mean you shouldn't hold if you're already down massively?
Well that depends on your own life situation, how much you've invested, and if you don't need the money for the next few years.
Mathematically, whether it drops to 4.5K or 3K from the reference of 6K is highly meaningful, its a drop of 25% or 50%. But if your reference starting point is much higher, then it really doesn't matter all that much. A drop from 17K to 4.5K is a 74% loss while down to 3K it would be 82%, massive losses either way. In that sense if this is money you don't need, it makes sense to simply have it stored in a wallet and forget about it for a few years. Who cares if it drops further after a certain point if you don't plan to take it out for a while? Its like in equities markets where people with massive losses don't sell, but instead move the loss position into their retirement fund where they don't plan to take it out for a long time and thus are giving it time to rebound back.
But what if its money you need? What if like many out there you took out loans hoping to catch a run to 50K? If you have high interest debt (credit cards...etc), focus on paying that down first. Credit cards generally have high interest and many compound daily, so pay down the debt first rather than trying to pay your debts off with a crypto bull run that may take years to materialize.
This is also a good learning opportunity. It is worrying how few people who hold crypto have a clue what any of this even is or how it works. I've always recommended this video to explain how Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) actually work.
A good thing to do during catastrophic losses is to honestly access why you got suckered into buying high in the first place. Most people here are young, and this is a valuable lesson in why you shouldn't follow the herd. Everyone is a genius in a bull market, everyone is chasing the next hype. Crypto tends to attract people looking for a get-rich-quick-without-effort crowd, but it takes some mental effort to understand this beyond the buzzwords. Take the time to understand the fundamental reasons why an asset has value and what factors would drive its rise once the hype dies down. What makes Bitcoin valuable, what makes some of the other cryptoassets valuable? If those fundamentals in some way changes, so should your opinion.
Its also a great opportunity to help in its adoption by using it. The irony of it all is that people demand that they get rich because of the hard work of buying a bunch of crypto in an exchange and transferring it to their wallet, without any understanding what they're buying into.
Also don't be angry. Don't look to blame. Look to learn and improve next time you invest.
submitted by arsonbunny to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Why Bitcoin remains a marginal vehicle for store of value (at best) vs. Gold

There is no doubt that times like these necessitate asset diversification.
Some candidates include Bitcoin (“BTC”) and Gold (“XAU”). We have an on-going debate with one of my best friends about Bitcoin.
He is a firm believer in BTC due to (i) the printing of money by central banks, (ii) the lost of faith in governments and (iii) the technological advantage over traditional gold
[Original post with charts: https://bankeronwheels.com/bitcoin-a-marginal-vehicle-for-store-of-value/ ]
I think of BTC as an electronic version of gold:

Lindy effect – which is most likely to survive?

If you store value, the most important aspect is for the asset class to survive. Made popular by Nicholas Taleb, the Lindy effect states that the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy.
Gold has been around for centuries and will be around in the next decades. As with Bitcoin, the currency may be around or could be replaced by a more efficient one (e.g. from transaction perspective). If you consider some of your savings as a means to secure a future for you and your kids then Gold is much more likely to fulfill this objective – although one needs to be reminded that this both asset classes don’t generate any income and as such can be used as diversifiers and potentially partially rotated into more risky assets when the market turns.

Price stability

If we assume that currently the main use for both is the store of value (BTC is only marginally used as transactional currency) then price stability is key. Gold prices are more stable and largely correlated to (i) real rates (ii) strength of USD and (iii) macro outlook. Arguably, Gold is less prone to price manipulation as one of the most traded assets (daily volumes can be as high as the total market cap of BTC).
It goes without saying that BTC can provide you with better returns as it’s more speculative in nature. The purpose of this blog however is to analyse assets from a savings allocation perspective and thus taking into consideration the risk you’re taking.

Insurance against market crash

While both BTC and XAU increased in value along with other risk assets prior to the crisis, the subsequent drop was much more significant for BTC while XAU only experienced marginal losses due to forced liquidations from investors highlighting the speculative nature of BTC.
As such Gold provides a good insurance policy as long as the crash in not excessively severe in nature – in 2008 Gold has initially dropped in value due to liquidations before rallying.
Another potential diversifiers that act as insurance for equity portfolios are government bonds. Treasuries have also experienced some volatility due to liquidations but are different to BTC and XAU as the FED controls the short term maturity asset yields and now even considering controlling the longer end of the curvesimilar to other countries like Japan or Australia

Doom scenario(s)

Both assets have major issues since Gold can’t be easily transported/accessed in case of a major natural disaster and BTC will miserably fail when electricity is down (earthquake, tsunami etc). Electronic Gold suffers from the same shortcoming hence physical gold has an edge here

Possible Near term Prospects

The technology behind BTC is very powerful. I’d also agree that conceptually is the best form of money that has ever been invented. Regarding BTC, in the end my friend and I will probably meet somewhere in the middle . A marginal part of the receivers of US fiscal measures may invest the cash in BTC. I have seen a large group of anti-establishment people on the West Coast while cycling from Vancouver to San Francisco last summer and there is a likelihood that these people will drive the BTC price up in the near term. However, due mainly to the price stability issue and perceived complexity I am yet to see a significant part of population that would allocate a sizeable part of their savings in BTC. And this brings me to my last point – skin in the game. So far, my friend only allocated a small amount of his net worth to BTC…
[As originally posted with charts on https://bankeronwheels.com/bitcoin-a-marginal-vehicle-for-store-of-value/ ]
submitted by bankeronwheels to InvestmentEducation [link] [comments]

GOAL-ORIENTED Investing: 10 Mistakes you should avoid

"Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn't, pays it"- Albert Einstein
[As first seen on: https://bankeronwheels.com/]

1. Not clearly defining your goals. Define your objectives and think in terms of sub-portfolios

Define your short and long term goals. Allocate to asset classes based on your time horizon (e.g. short term goals need to be carefully managed with a defensive portfolio since the short term volatility of high risk assets like stocks can hurt you). Be sure to have a reserve fund of liquid short-term investments and cash so you can cover emergencies and upcoming large expenses without having to sell your investments during down markets, as illustrated below:

2. Not being patient and overreacting. Good things come to those who wait

Returns tend to smooth out over the long term. There is a myth about a Fidelity study that analysed all its performing accounts and realised that best performance came out of portfolios of people who either forgot about their accounts or were dead. You can understand why people believe these findings although the study never took place (look at the above chart’s 1 to 20 year rolling performance again!). Logging into your brokepension plan account every day may not be helpful. You may tend to react – do not rush investment decisions.

3. Oveunderestimating your risk tolerance

Take a risk tolerance assessment if necessary to understand your risk profile. Your risk tolerance is important to tweak the asset allocation of your goal sub-portfolio. It is determined by: the degree of flexibility you have with regard to your financial goal, and your personal comfort level with volatility in your portfolio.

4. Aiming at influencing things outside of your control. Focus of what’s in your control

This is the Stoic part of the 10 recommendations (if you also happen to adhere to this philosophy get the newsletter I never stopped reading for the past 5 years). One of the eye-openers that you learn while studying for the gruelling (Chartered Financial Analyst ‘CFA’) Charter is that research estimates that asset allocation (not stock selection!) drives up to c. 90% of overall portfolio performance. You control asset allocation and rebalancing. You do control your spending and savings that will grow over time – don’t waste most of your time on researching individual stocks (read: Are you more qualified than a professional analyst?)

5. Not acquiring enough education and taking excessive idiosyncratic risks

Some of the most trending Google searches during this COVID-19 pandemic include ‘best stocks to buy now’, ‘how to invest in oil stocks’, ‘best stock for 2020’ or ‘best investments for 2020’ etc. In fact the phrase ‘how to buy a stock’ surged to record highs. This also relates to FOMO which I have described here and chasing upward trends in a bear market. Acquiring Investment Knowledge is key as it is ultimately your decisions that will determine whether your hard-earned savings generate long term returns. Do your homework. Understand investment risks. Research fundamentals. Take a bit more time if needed – the market is efficient and is pricing in information relatively quickly – you have no edge in acting quickly.

6. Being overly conservative over the long run

Think of your goals as liabilities that you need to match with your investments. The power of compounding means that you need a much lower amount today to meet a higher amount expenditure in the future. Einstein said compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn’t, pays it. If you have high needs with long time horizon you need to take calculated risks. Invest too defensively (e.g. low allocation to Equities) and it may not match your long term objective. Buffett’s exceptional investment returns are also due to his time horizon.

7. Holding excessive cash. Not taking risks involves high opportunity costs

Believe it or not but a lot of bankers tend to hold cash and under-invest. By holding cash you are not only missing out on compounding interest but also paying more taxes! Inflation is an indirect tax that works by destroying savings in exchange for gov’t financing. It gets worse – as central banks print an unprecedented amount of money – most standard measurements of inflation, such as the consumer price index (CPI), do not account for the disproportional effects of quantitative easing which is rising asset prices! Even when you hear about deflation it’s often misleading. This bear market may be a good opportunity to gradually deploy cash for long term returns if you haven’t already.
As an example, look below at the ‘headline’ inflation in the UK (2.9%) that over 10 years increased prices by 29.29% vs. London Property Prices that increased over twice as much!

8. Not considering diversification

Yes, bonds are not as sexy as stocks since your returns may not be as spectacular in the short term but these are excellent diversifiers that may be sometimes better suited depending on your investment objective and time horizon. Other currencies or hard metals/BTC may be good as well.

9. Letting your emotions rule

This is difficult to implement since we tend to have emotional biases. If you do decide to have a small part of your goal-oriented strategic asset allocation dedicated to tactical asset allocation, sector or stock selection emotions could drive investment decisions based on loss aversion or overconfidence (e.g. confusing brains with a bull market). If it’s e.g. the latter try to stay humble/rational and ask yourself if you really have an edge before making a decision.

10. Forgetting to rebalance

Some advisors recommend that investors rebalance their portfolios on a regular time interval while others recommend rebalancing only when the relative weight of an asset class deviates from the target allocation (glide path investments). Either way, this is something that needs to be observed on a regular basis. We will discuss glide path investments in future posts. Subscribe here to get notified.
[With charts and videos: https://bankeronwheels.com/how-do-i-start-investing-start-learning-how-to-invest-in-stocks-and-bonds-by-avoiding-these-10-common-investing-mistakes/ ]

submitted by bankeronwheels to InvestmentEducation [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Halving & the Step to Maturation

Bitcoin Halving & the Step to Maturation
It’s about a week to the long-expected Bitcoin halving.
You can easily find a counting down page by visiting the website of any exchange, online magazine or data aggregator. Yes — everybody is waiting for it.

Source: Bitcoin Block Half
It’s an event that brings both predictability and uncertainty.

What is Predictable?

Bitcoin was designed as a deflationary currency with a 21 million fixed supply, like gold. Over time, the issuance of bitcoins will decrease and thus become scarcer.
When it was first created, 50 Bitcoins per block were given as a reward to the miners. After every 210,000 blocks are mined (approximately every 4 years), the block reward halves and will keep on halving until the block reward per block becomes 0 (approximately by year 2140).
At about 06:18 UTC on May 12, 2020 (as of writing), the block rewards of Bitcoin will drop from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.

What is Uncertain?


Source: https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/
As is shown in this chart, we can note a significant price jump after each halving.
But will this time turn out to be a different story when both the stock market and the crypto market are much more volatile than usual due to the global COVID-19 pandemic?
The past few months saw a big shakeout in the crypto market due to the coronavirus pandemic and its aftermath. On March 12, the Bitcoin price dumped 40% touching $3,800 within the day, marking a Black Thursday of the year.
The stock market went through a severe crash too. The US stock market triggered the “circuit breaker” four times within 10 days.
Just recently, the Bitcoin price soared above $9,000 and has now retraced to $8,864 at the time of writing, according to the statistics on CoinMarketCap.
Nobody knows for sure how things will be when the halving happens. Will the Bitcoin price be even more volatile or will it stabilize?

2020 Bitcoin Maturity Test

According to the Bloomberg Crypto Outlook (April 2020 Edition), the increasing futures open interest, declining volatility and relative outperformance despite the stock-market shakeout this year indicates Bitcoin is maturing from a speculative crypto asset toward a digital version of gold.

Increasing futures open interest


Source: skew
The number of Bitcoin futures contracts outstanding listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has recovered significantly from the March lows, indicating a resurgence in institutions that want to buy the cryptocurrency. The high volume also represents taming of the highly speculative bull market.

Declining Volatility


Source: Bloomberg
This graphic shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has jumped to the highest since 2010, twice that of equities, suggesting that Bitcoin is now divorcing equities and joining gold.

Bitcoin Outperformed Stock Market

Apart from that, Bitcoin is becoming less of a risk-on asset. In the first quarter of 2020, Bitcoin remained up about 9% when the S&P 500 showed a correction of 20%.

To Sum Up

2020 marks a key test for Bitcoin’s transition from speculative asset to the crypto market’s version of gold. We believe that the first-born crypto will pass the test to move towards a mature gold-like asset.
At Leverj, we are working actively on the decentralized derivatives market including Bitcoin perpetuals which is expected to be launched in a couple of months.
Visit live.leverj.io to enjoy our zero-fee trading for a limited period of time as of now. Follow us on Twitter or join our Telegram group to stay tuned for our updates.
Please keep in mind
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Before you trade, please make sure you are legally permitted to trade cryptocurrencies, derivatives, and any other instruments offered on this platform from your home jurisdiction.
Nothing in this article constitutes an offer, solicitation, or investment advise.
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Why Bitcoin remains a marginal vehicle for store of value (at best) vs. Gold

There is no doubt that times like these necessitate asset diversification.
Some candidates include Bitcoin (“BTC”) and Gold (“XAU”). We have an on-going debate with one of my best friends about Bitcoin.
He is a firm believer in BTC due to (i) the printing of money by central banks, (ii) the lost of faith in governments and (iii) the technological advantage over traditional gold
[Original post with charts: https://bankeronwheels.com/bitcoin-a-marginal-vehicle-for-store-of-value/ ]
I think of BTC as an electronic version of gold:
Lindy effect – which is most likely to survive?
If you store value, the most important aspect is for the asset class to survive. Made popular by Nicholas Taleb, the Lindy effect states that the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy.
Gold has been around for centuries and will be around in the next decades. As with Bitcoin, the currency may be around or could be replaced by a more efficient one (e.g. from transaction perspective). If you consider some of your savings as a means to secure a future for you and your kids then Gold is much more likely to fulfill this objective – although one needs to be reminded that this both asset classes don’t generate any income and as such can be used as diversifiers and potentially partially rotated into more risky assets when the market turns.
Price stability
If we assume that currently the main use for both is the store of value (BTC is only marginally used as transactional currency) then price stability is key. Gold prices are more stable and largely correlated to (i) real rates (ii) strength of USD and (iii) macro outlook. Arguably, Gold is less prone to price manipulation as one of the most traded assets (daily volumes can be as high as the total market cap of BTC).
It goes without saying that BTC can provide you with better returns as it’s more speculative in nature. The purpose of this blog however is to analyse assets from a savings allocation perspective and thus taking into consideration the risk you’re taking.
Insurance against market crash
While both BTC and XAU increased in value along with other risk assets prior to the crisis, the subsequent drop was much more significant for BTC while XAU only experienced marginal losses due to forced liquidations from investors highlighting the speculative nature of BTC.
As such Gold provides a good insurance policy as long as the crash in not excessively severe in nature – in 2008 Gold has initially dropped in value due to liquidations before rallying.
Another potential diversifiers that act as insurance for equity portfolios are government bonds. Treasuries have also experienced some volatility due to liquidations but are different to BTC and XAU as the FED controls the short term maturity asset yields and now even considering controlling the longer end of the curvesimilar to other countries like Japan or Australia
Doom scenario(s)
Both assets have major issues since Gold can’t be easily transported/accessed in case of a major natural disaster and BTC will miserably fail when electricity is down (earthquake, tsunami etc). Electronic Gold suffers from the same shortcoming hence physical gold has an edge here
Possible Near term Prospects
The technology behind BTC is very powerful. I’d also agree that conceptually is the best form of money that has ever been invented. Regarding BTC, in the end my friend and I will probably meet somewhere in the middle . A marginal part of the receivers of US fiscal measures may invest the cash in BTC. I have seen a large group of anti-establishment people on the West Coast while cycling from Vancouver to San Francisco last summer and there is a likelihood that these people will drive the BTC price up in the near term. However, due mainly to the price stability issue and perceived complexity I am yet to see a significant part of population that would allocate a sizeable part of their savings in BTC. And this brings me to my last point – skin in the game. So far, my friend only allocated a small amount of his net worth to BTC…
[As originally posted with charts on https://bankeronwheels.com/bitcoin-a-marginal-vehicle-for-store-of-value/ ]
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Market Weekly Report - Week of 27/04/2020

Market Weekly Report - Week of 27/04/2020

BTC/USD daily chart
The Bitcoin price was able to break the $7,400 resistance last week and reach as high as $7,773 at one point. It was a surprising move, as the price had dipped to $6,770 earlier in the week after forming a lower high than previous week.
Looking at the 30-minute chart below, the BTC price formed a cup-and-handle pattern, with the breakout point at $7,200. It formed a long bar that peaked at $7,773, and then settled near $7,550. The price has been moving sideways with range between $7,400 and $7,600. The breakout indicated an overall bullish trend. If the next low maintains above $7,400, there is a chance that the price would test $8,000.
BTC/USD 30-minute chart

Review of the week:
As U.S. president Donald Trump has signed into law the fourth coronavirus relief package that will provide aid to small businesses and the healthcare system to the tune of $484 billion this week, with all the money being injected into the system at this time and the upcoming halving in May, Bitcoin could be the best performing asset in 2020. An article from Forbes quotes sayings from Marcus Swanepoel, chief executive of London-based bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchange Luno, "Equities have come to the end of a ten year bull run, fixed income is under pressure and we have seen the collapse in the price of a number of key commodities, so with the levels of quantitative easing coming into the markets we would hope to see a steady build in the price of bitcoin to the end of the year, especially with the increased fragility of the existing financial system we've seen over the past few months." Therefore, as traders eye the biggest quantitative easing program ever undertaken, bitcoin could outperform the wider market in 2020 with investors scrambling to keep up with a rapidly evolving and uncertain situation: uncertainty about the virus, uncertainty about the policy response, and uncertainty about the economic response to the virus and to policy.
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.

About Coinviva:
Coinviva aims to create the best crypto financial services ecosystem for both institutional and individual investors. We provide reliable fiat funding options, excellent trading liquidity, bank security level custody and one-stop high liquidity provision on-site & off-site. Our founding management team all come from top tiered investment banking (e.g. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch), with fully comprehensive financial institution operation experience.
Homepage: https://coinviva.com/
Telegram: https://t.me/coinviva
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Coinviva Market Weekly Report - Week of 05/04/2020

Coinviva Market Weekly Report - Week of 05/04/2020

BTC/USD Hourly Chart
The Bitcoin price was able to break out of the upper Keltner channel at $6,540 and reached as high as $7,285 at one point. It went back to $6,818 which is near the resistance level from last December. The higher highs and higher lows show that the price is back on an upward trend.
The BTC price is expected to test the $7,140 resistance next week. If the momentum keeps up, the price can potentially go back to $7,650 in the medium term. For the time-being, wait for the price to break above the Keltner channel again near $7,000 and then enter a long position, with support at around $6,650.
Review of the week:
Despite the economic downturn induced by the coronavirus pandemic, Kraken CEO Jesse Powell predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) and the crypto industry as a whole will perform well in the months ahead. In an interview with Forbes, Powell reveals that while many companies are laying off workers, the San Francisco-based exchange is increasing its staff by nearly 10% due to an uptick in interest in the cryptocurrency market at large ever since the coronavirus surfaced in China. He says that both the cryptocurrency and traditional markets have their share of retail investors who make trades on a whim, and that Bitcoin has remained relatively stable, with the price rebounding by 30% plus last week.
A closely-watched Bitcoin (BTC) whale Joe007, who earned $20 million in realized profits on Bitfinex between February and March, says he expects more pain ahead for the global economy and predicts waves of volatility as governments push to prop up traditional markets and combat a devastating loss of jobs: “It is going to be the biggest economic shock of our generation. It will unfold in waves and over time, giving false hopes and then crushing them. The focus of the crisis will be shifting through different areas. Attempts to alleviate and solve one crisis will lead to more mess.” He expects investors to continue shifting assets to US dollars – a dynamic that pummeled equities and the crypto markets in March.
In a letter to investors, CEO and co-founder of Quantum Economics, Mati Greenspan, says Bitcoin’s recent crash, along with traditional markets, is not surprising. He argues that concerns are overblown regarding whether the leading cryptocurrency still has a future after the volatile pullback: “There seems to be an existential question going around the crypto market at the moment where people are saying that if bitcoin can’t rise in this environment then it probably doesn’t have much of a reason to exist at all. After all, the narrative of using bitcoin as a safe haven in times of financial stress has been a rather strong one throughout the years and so now should really be BTC’s time to shine. Bitcoin was invented to give us an alternative to money that is controlled by governments and banks. The volatility is largely due to the fact that it’s quite new and adoption rates are unstable, which leads to large levels of speculation. So, a measure of success would be to see bitcoin remain on a slow but steady incline, rather than zooming towards the moon due to global uncertainty.”
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.

About Coinviva:
Coinviva aims to create the best crypto financial services ecosystem for both institutional and individual investors. We provide reliable fiat funding options, excellent trading liquidity, bank security level custody and one-stop high liquidity provision on-site & off-site. Our founding management team all come from top tiered investment banking (e.g. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch), with fully comprehensive financial institution operation experience.
Homepage: https://coinviva.com/
Telegram: https://t.me/coinviva
submitted by Coinviva to u/Coinviva [link] [comments]

BITCOIN MACRO CHARTS PRIMED FOR BTC BULL MARKET WOW! WHATS NEXT FOR BITCOIN!? MORE DOWNSIDE?? TA charts Crypto prediction, analysis, news, trading Bitcoin & Dow Jones after market trading live! BTC price ... EASY Way To Read Bitcoin Charts - BTC Technical Analysis ... BITCOIN BREAKS OUT! URGENT SHORT TERM BTC PRICE TARGETS!

At Yahoo Finance, you get free stock quotes, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, international market data, social interaction and mortgage rates that help you manage your financial life. Bitcoin halvings are scheduled to occur every 210,000 blocks – roughly every four years – until the maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins has been generated by the network. That makes stock-to-flow ratio (scarcity) higher so in theory price should go up. This has held true previously in Bitcoin's history. BTC USD (Bitcoin / US Dollar) This is the most popular Bitcoin pair in the world. Bitcoin uses peer-to-peer technology to operate with no central authority or banks; managing transactions and the issuing of Bitcoins is carried out collectively by the network. Bitcoin is open-source; its design is public, nobody owns or controls this cryptocurrency and everyone can take part. Bitcoin price grew ... Equity markets bouncing today offered hope to bitcoin bulls, but the three main factors that have been keeping price down are unchanged. Bitcoin (BTC) has crossed into the bullish territory, but price remains vulnerable to potential sell-off in stocks, an analyst at Stack Funds believes.

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BITCOIN MACRO CHARTS PRIMED FOR BTC BULL MARKET

BITCOIN NEXT MOVE, we are getting close to a major decision point for BTC, what are the target areas to watch? lets take a look and let me know what you thing in the comment section below, thanks ... Bitcoin price is almost exactly inline with every other post- BTC halving it has gone through. The pattern is simple: BTC price trades sideways after halving, below key bull market indicator, and ... We explore a 4-dimensional Bitcoin chart where we plot the price of BTC against time, the valuation with respect to the S&P 500, and the valuation with respect to gold (color-coded). MORE DUMP FOR BITCOIN!? BTC charts TA Crypto price prediction, analysis, news, trading - Duration: 11:14. Crypto Savy 1,717 views. 11:14. Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Bear Trap Before The Crash ... Bitcoin price breaks out bullish on the short term as btc tests a key trendline on the bitcoin charts. In this short btc technical analysis today, we look at btc price on the hourly chart and ...

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